V-Lab
Tire Company Debica S A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.30%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
13.72%
increased by 1.46%
1 Month
15.77%
increased by 3.51%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4448 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1653 | 4.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6773 | 13.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0916 | -2.00** |
| γ2 | 0.0971 | 1.43 |
| γ3 | 0.0893 | 1.69* |
| γ4 | -0.2182 | -3.98*** |
| γ5 | 0.2062 | 4.01*** |
| γ6 | -0.1053 | -2.12** |
| γ7 | 0.0134 | 0.28 |
| γ8 | 0.0076 | 0.19 |
| γ9 | 0.0144 | 0.50 |
Persistence:
0.843
Half-life:
4 days
Other Tire Company Debica S A Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities