V-Lab
Carraro India Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
32.66%
increased by 3.60%
1 Week
32.22%
increased by 3.16%
1 Month
32.08%
increased by 3.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7065 | 3.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.1539 | 1.43 |
| βGARCH | 0.1401 | 0.72 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -33.3804 | -4.29*** |
| γ2 | 48.2404 | 3.88*** |
| γ3 | -14.9370 | -1.39 |
| γ4 | -5.6597 | -0.52 |
| γ5 | 9.0428 | 1.19 |
0.294
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7065 | 3.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1539 | 1.43 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1401 | 0.72 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -33.3804 | -4.29*** |
| γ2 | 48.2404 | 3.88*** |
| γ3 | -14.9370 | -1.39 |
| γ4 | -5.6597 | -0.52 |
| γ5 | 9.0428 | 1.19 |
Persistence:
0.294
Half-life:
1 days
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