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V-Lab

State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

0.32%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.32%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

0.32%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0212
13.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9737
264.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0018
-0.25

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

117 days