V-Lab
Nj Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
27.88%
1 Week
32.91%
1 Month
38.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 21, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 115% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3689 | 25.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5387 | 45.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1973 | -11.83*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0065 | 0.52 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0051 | 2.87*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9943 | 439.94*** |
Persistence:
0.809
Half-life:
3 days
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