V-Lab
Valbiotis SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
69.53%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
71.43%
increased by 1.92%
1 Month
73.98%
increased by 4.47%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6586 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1068 | 2.32** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7016 | 5.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 7.1815 | 1.91* |
| γ2 | -7.5403 | -1.41 |
| γ3 | -2.8141 | -0.78 |
| γ4 | 7.1370 | 1.51 |
| γ5 | -7.7250 | -1.62 |
| γ6 | 8.1205 | 2.20** |
| γ7 | -10.4465 | -2.01** |
| γ8 | 12.1674 | 1.80* |
| γ9 | -10.6783 | -1.96* |
| γ10 | 6.2280 | 2.09** |
Persistence:
0.808
Half-life:
3 days
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