V-Lab
Valbiotis SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
65.46%
increased by 0.79%
1 Week
66.29%
increased by 1.62%
1 Month
69.45%
increased by 4.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 189 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 185% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2813 | 6.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0321 | 5.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9345 | 191.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0595 | 2.11** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
189 days
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