V-Lab
Valbiotis SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
85.04%
increased by 8.69%
1 Week
85.27%
increased by 8.92%
1 Month
86.07%
increased by 9.72%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 33.3909 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1091 | 53.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9835 | 294.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4305 | 103.67*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
42 days
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