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V-Lab

Valbiotis SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

85.04%

increased by 8.69%

1 Week

85.27%

increased by 8.92%

1 Month

86.07%

increased by 9.72%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Valbiotis SA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 15, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

33.3909
4.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1091
53.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9835
294.98***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4305
103.67***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

42 days