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V-Lab

Polaris Group GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

48.67%

decreased by 7.16%

1 Week

52.79%

decreased by 3.04%

1 Month

64.84%

increased by 9.01%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:50 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Polaris Group GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 15, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

43.2047
2.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1978
45.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9749
104.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6826
43.36***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days