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V-Lab

Polaris Group GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

44.18%

decreased by 1.47%

1 Week

45.74%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

50.06%

increased by 4.41%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Polaris Group GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 15, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6583
10.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1194
9.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8498
75.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0333
-1.92*

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days