V-Lab
Polaris Group GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
44.18%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Week
45.74%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
50.06%
increased by 4.41%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6583 | 10.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1194 | 9.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8498 | 75.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0333 | -1.92* |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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