V-Lab
AnHui Higasket Plastics Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
62.65%
increased by 3.16%
1 Week
63.09%
increased by 3.60%
1 Month
64.80%
increased by 5.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 282 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 60.4899 | 6.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0933 | 45.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 3,013.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0455 | 42.96*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
282 days
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