V-Lab
Onex Corp (Japan) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
34.71%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
39.63%
increased by 4.28%
1 Month
49.02%
increased by 13.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 1997 to Oct 5, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1240 | 3.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.1980 | 5.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7097 | 15.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1913 | -3.48*** |
| γ2 | 0.2813 | 3.38*** |
| γ3 | -0.0842 | -1.16 |
| γ4 | -0.0884 | -1.12 |
| γ5 | 0.1715 | 2.01** |
| γ6 | -0.1881 | -2.31** |
| γ7 | 0.2431 | 3.42*** |
| γ8 | -0.2171 | -4.26*** |
0.908
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1240 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1980 | 5.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7097 | 15.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1913 | -3.48*** |
| γ2 | 0.2813 | 3.38*** |
| γ3 | -0.0842 | -1.16 |
| γ4 | -0.0884 | -1.12 |
| γ5 | 0.1715 | 2.01** |
| γ6 | -0.1881 | -2.31** |
| γ7 | 0.2431 | 3.42*** |
| γ8 | -0.2171 | -4.26*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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