V-Lab
Onex Corp (Japan) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
60.56%
decreased by 6.22%
1 Week
61.10%
decreased by 5.68%
1 Month
62.34%
decreased by 4.44%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1265 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1958 | 5.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7141 | 15.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1908 | -3.46*** |
| γ2 | 0.2796 | 3.33*** |
| γ3 | -0.0808 | -1.09 |
| γ4 | -0.0927 | -1.15 |
| γ5 | 0.1753 | 2.02** |
| γ6 | -0.1928 | -2.34** |
| γ7 | 0.2506 | 3.49*** |
| γ8 | -0.2244 | -4.34*** |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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