V-Lab
Onex Corp (Japan) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
40.12%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
45.45%
increased by 4.14%
1 Month
55.68%
increased by 14.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 1997 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1143 | 3.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.1979 | 5.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7094 | 15.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1931 | -3.50*** |
| γ2 | 0.2834 | 3.39*** |
| γ3 | -0.0839 | -1.15 |
| γ4 | -0.0898 | -1.13 |
| γ5 | 0.1734 | 2.02** |
| γ6 | -0.1910 | -2.34** |
| γ7 | 0.2481 | 3.48*** |
| γ8 | -0.2225 | -4.31*** |
0.907
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1143 | 3.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1979 | 5.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7094 | 15.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1931 | -3.50*** |
| γ2 | 0.2834 | 3.39*** |
| γ3 | -0.0839 | -1.15 |
| γ4 | -0.0898 | -1.13 |
| γ5 | 0.1734 | 2.02** |
| γ6 | -0.1910 | -2.34** |
| γ7 | 0.2481 | 3.48*** |
| γ8 | -0.2225 | -4.31*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
Other Onex Corp (Japan) Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities