V-Lab
Fujipream Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
31.92%
decreased by 2.15%
1 Week
35.98%
increased by 1.91%
1 Month
41.14%
increased by 7.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3161 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2469 | 4.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5711 | 9.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3104 | 1.50 |
| γ2 | -0.4753 | -1.62 |
| γ3 | 0.3339 | 1.86* |
| γ4 | -0.4781 | -2.63*** |
| γ5 | 0.7067 | 3.81*** |
| γ6 | -0.8179 | -4.34*** |
| γ7 | 0.8076 | 3.53*** |
| γ8 | -0.6746 | -2.82*** |
| γ9 | 0.4487 | 2.41** |
| γ10 | -0.2033 | -2.08** |
Persistence:
0.818
Half-life:
3 days
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