V-Lab
Fujipream Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
30.20%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
35.17%
increased by 4.27%
1 Month
41.31%
increased by 10.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3743 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2463 | 4.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5719 | 9.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3273 | 1.66* |
| γ2 | -0.4926 | -1.75* |
| γ3 | 0.3272 | 1.86* |
| γ4 | -0.4565 | -2.51** |
| γ5 | 0.6762 | 3.60*** |
| γ6 | -0.7926 | -4.38*** |
| γ7 | 0.7955 | 3.65*** |
| γ8 | -0.6703 | -2.82*** |
| γ9 | 0.4422 | 2.27** |
| γ10 | -0.1950 | -1.87* |
Persistence:
0.818
Half-life:
3 days
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