V-Lab
PSK Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
96.05%
increased by 4.89%
1 Week
98.08%
increased by 6.92%
1 Month
85.46%
decreased by 5.70%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0094 | 0.72 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6386 | 13.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1120 | 6.69*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.0406 | 0.10 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3135 | 0.10 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4810 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.704
Half-life:
2 days
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