V-Lab
Dyc Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
77.19%
increased by 3.52%
1 Week
81.76%
increased by 8.09%
1 Month
85.70%
increased by 12.03%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1381 | 3.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1664 | 3.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5399 | 4.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -7.2437 | -4.16*** |
| γ2 | 9.6395 | 3.70*** |
| γ3 | 1.6396 | 0.96 |
| γ4 | -10.1333 | -5.28*** |
| γ5 | 9.4406 | 3.34*** |
| γ6 | -6.5838 | -2.87*** |
| γ7 | 6.3536 | 4.04*** |
| γ8 | -5.1650 | -2.77*** |
| γ9 | 4.6457 | 2.33** |
| γ10 | -4.2987 | -3.16*** |
Persistence:
0.706
Half-life:
2 days
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