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Dyaco International Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

22.26%

decreased by 1.10%

1 Week

22.57%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Month

23.72%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dyaco International Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 24, 2011 to Oct 20, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 189 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~189 daysv = 3.57 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run9.9993
1.53
αscore0.0642
13.62***
βpersistence0.9963
483.19***
νDF3.5655
10.15***

0.996

Persistence

189d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

9.9993
1.53
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0642
13.62***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9963
483.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5655
10.15***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

189 days