Dyaco International Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
22.26%
1 Week
22.57%
1 Month
23.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2011 to Oct 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 189 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 9.9993 | 1.53 |
| αscore | 0.0642 | 13.62*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9963 | 483.19*** |
| νDF | 3.5655 | 10.15*** |
0.996
Persistence189d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 9.9993 | 1.53 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0642 | 13.62*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9963 | 483.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5655 | 10.15*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
189 days
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