V-Lab
Dyaco International Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
32.46%
decreased by 1.54%
1 Week
33.83%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
35.81%
increased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3152 | 3.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1365 | 3.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6919 | 9.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.6102 | 2.19** |
| γ2 | -0.7030 | -1.76* |
| γ3 | 0.1053 | 0.41 |
| γ4 | -0.4739 | -2.10** |
| γ5 | 1.4893 | 5.65*** |
| γ6 | -1.8729 | -6.90*** |
| γ7 | 1.0141 | 3.93*** |
| γ8 | -0.0147 | -0.07 |
| γ9 | -0.2464 | -1.55 |
Persistence:
0.828
Half-life:
4 days
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