Jiangyin Zhongnan Heavy Industries Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.31%
increased by 6.21%
1 Week
44.74%
increased by 6.64%
1 Month
45.56%
increased by 7.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8924 | 4.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1598 | 3.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7203 | 12.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2876 | -1.03 |
| γ2 | 0.6382 | 1.57 |
| γ3 | -0.8646 | -2.98*** |
| γ4 | 0.9458 | 2.98*** |
| γ5 | -0.5702 | -2.19** |
| γ6 | -0.0580 | -0.26 |
| γ7 | 0.5197 | 2.48** |
| γ8 | -0.4595 | -3.10*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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