V-Lab
Jiangyin Zhongnan Heavy Industries Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
44.46%
increased by 3.34%
1 Week
44.92%
increased by 3.80%
1 Month
45.81%
increased by 4.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9013 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1584 | 4.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7252 | 13.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2634 | -0.95 |
| γ2 | 0.5902 | 1.45 |
| γ3 | -0.8183 | -2.78*** |
| γ4 | 0.9129 | 2.81*** |
| γ5 | -0.5644 | -2.10** |
| γ6 | -0.0447 | -0.20 |
| γ7 | 0.5123 | 2.41** |
| γ8 | -0.4649 | -3.18*** |
Persistence:
0.884
Half-life:
6 days
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