V-Lab
Jiangyin Zhongnan Heavy Industries Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
44.55%
increased by 4.67%
1 Week
44.82%
increased by 4.94%
1 Month
45.75%
increased by 5.87%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.0804 | 4.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0996 | 26.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9775 | 176.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5746 | 8.71*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
30 days
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