Costar Group Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
39.96%
decreased by 2.42%
1 Week
40.97%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Month
41.74%
decreased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 07:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 2007 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.1324 | 5.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6458 | 11.11*** |
| γleverage | -0.0142 | -0.55 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1992 | 1.81* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0491 | 2.56** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9317 | 33.40*** |
0.771
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1324 | 5.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6458 | 11.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0142 | -0.55 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1992 | 1.81* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0491 | 2.56** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9317 | 33.40*** |
Persistence:
0.771
Half-life:
3 days
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