Voler CAR Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
14,730.68
increased by 7,950.35
1 Week
10,040.97
increased by 3,260.64
1 Month
7,265.23
increased by 484.90
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 19, 2025 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5605 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3189 | 3.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5086 | 4.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2730 | -0.18 |
Persistence:
0.828
Half-life:
4 days
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