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V-Lab

Voler CAR Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026

1 Day

14,730.68

increased by 7,950.35

1 Week

10,040.97

increased by 3,260.64

1 Month

7,265.23

increased by 484.90

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Voler CAR Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 19, 2025 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5605
3.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3189
3.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5086
4.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.2730
-0.18

Persistence:

0.828

Half-life:

4 days