V-Lab
North American Income Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
5,244.61
increased by 51.46
1 Week
5,377.24
increased by 184.09
1 Month
6,014.00
increased by 820.85
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3752 | 8.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0735 | 9.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9175 | 105.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0086 | -3.82*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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