V-Lab
North American Income Trust PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
5,605.03
1 Week
5,727.18
1 Month
6,318.16
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0754 | 4.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9077 | 303.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0667 | -2.36** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6034 | 4.72*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9994 | 546.43*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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