V-Lab
Murray Income Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
4,698.46
increased by 32.71
1 Week
4,944.91
increased by 279.16
1 Month
5,117.97
increased by 452.22
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2249 | 8.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0709 | 10.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9229 | 130.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0133 | -4.90*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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