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Murray Income Trust PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026

1 Day

4,698.46

increased by 32.71

1 Week

4,944.91

increased by 279.16

1 Month

5,117.97

increased by 452.22

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Murray Income Trust PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2249
8.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0709
10.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9229
130.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0133
-4.90***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

112 days