Skip to main content
V-Lab

Marlin Global Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

232,489.90

decreased by 6,754.60

1 Week

235,780.14

decreased by 3,464.36

1 Month

239,551.64

increased by 307.14

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Marlin Global Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0910
5.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1292
2.26**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7069
4.77***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.1575
0.91
γ2-0.2901
-1.00
γ30.3561
1.34
γ4-0.3735
-1.17
γ50.1850
0.59
γ6-0.3188
-1.24
γ70.9960
4.67***
γ8-1.4352
-5.91***
γ91.2199
3.99***

Persistence:

0.836

Half-life:

4 days