V-Lab
Marlin Global Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
232,489.90
decreased by 6,754.60
1 Week
235,780.14
decreased by 3,464.36
1 Month
239,551.64
increased by 307.14
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0910 | 5.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1292 | 2.26** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7069 | 4.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1575 | 0.91 |
| γ2 | -0.2901 | -1.00 |
| γ3 | 0.3561 | 1.34 |
| γ4 | -0.3735 | -1.17 |
| γ5 | 0.1850 | 0.59 |
| γ6 | -0.3188 | -1.24 |
| γ7 | 0.9960 | 4.67*** |
| γ8 | -1.4352 | -5.91*** |
| γ9 | 1.2199 | 3.99*** |
Persistence:
0.836
Half-life:
4 days
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