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V-Lab

Marlin Global Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

225,315.00

increased by 12,580.20

1 Week

202,590.86

decreased by 10,143.94

1 Month

221,020.88

increased by 8,286.08

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Marlin Global Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1041
5.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1311
2.27**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7064
4.78***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.1608
0.93
γ2-0.2953
-1.03
γ30.3596
1.37
γ4-0.3767
-1.19
γ50.1797
0.57
γ6-0.2915
-1.13
γ70.9549
4.52***
γ8-1.4091
-5.84***
γ91.1924
3.85***

Persistence:

0.837

Half-life:

4 days