V-Lab
Marlin Global Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
225,315.00
increased by 12,580.20
1 Week
202,590.86
decreased by 10,143.94
1 Month
221,020.88
increased by 8,286.08
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1041 | 5.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1311 | 2.27** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7064 | 4.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1608 | 0.93 |
| γ2 | -0.2953 | -1.03 |
| γ3 | 0.3596 | 1.37 |
| γ4 | -0.3767 | -1.19 |
| γ5 | 0.1797 | 0.57 |
| γ6 | -0.2915 | -1.13 |
| γ7 | 0.9549 | 4.52*** |
| γ8 | -1.4091 | -5.84*** |
| γ9 | 1.1924 | 3.85*** |
Persistence:
0.837
Half-life:
4 days
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