Kilima FIC FII Suno30 Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
17,254.93
decreased by 874.31
1 Week
18,571.15
increased by 441.91
1 Month
18,113.69
decreased by 15.55
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 2021 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1723 | 6.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.0508 | 4.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9427 | 64.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0506 | -0.31 |
0.993
Persistence105d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1723 | 6.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0508 | 4.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9427 | 64.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0506 | -0.31 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
105 days
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