V-Lab
Kilima FIC FII Suno30 Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
20,010.86
decreased by 678.11
1 Week
20,816.78
increased by 127.81
1 Month
19,976.09
decreased by 712.88
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1551 | 6.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0559 | 4.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9379 | 57.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0677 | -0.31 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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