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Kilima FIC FII Suno30 Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

17,254.93

decreased by 874.31

1 Week

18,571.15

increased by 441.91

1 Month

18,113.69

decreased by 15.55

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Kilima FIC FII Suno30 ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 2021 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1723
6.65***
αARCH0.0508
4.12***
βGARCH0.9427
64.44***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0506
-0.31

0.993

Persistence

105d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1723
6.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0508
4.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9427
64.44***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0506
-0.31

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

105 days