V-Lab
Kilima FIC FII Suno30 Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
18,777.68
decreased by 418.44
1 Week
19,522.07
increased by 325.95
1 Month
19,012.55
decreased by 183.57
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:59 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0637 | 7.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9486 | 214.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0247 | -1.84* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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