Intech Online Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
12,001.56
increased by 11,068.35
1 Week
3,327.09
increased by 2,393.88
1 Month
1,682.24
increased by 749.03
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 8, 2009 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 837 trading days (~3.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3704 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3118 | 7.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6874 | 16.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.9310 | -1.07 |
| γ2 | 1.2634 | 1.04 |
| γ3 | -5.1413 | -1.88* |
| γ4 | 14.8661 | 1.92* |
| γ5 | -17.7047 | -1.91* |
| γ6 | 11.9585 | 1.90* |
| γ7 | -13.9490 | -1.55 |
| γ8 | 23.6291 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
837 days
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