V-Lab
Hedge Recebiveis FII Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
49,619.85
decreased by 14,704.00
1 Week
63,970.38
decreased by 353.47
1 Month
63,913.18
decreased by 410.67
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 04:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6226 | 3.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.2106 | 2.06** |
| βGARCH | 0.3706 | 1.74* |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -30.7660 | -1.36 |
| γ2 | 42.5192 | 1.10 |
| γ3 | -29.3324 | -1.09 |
| γ4 | 39.7554 | 2.05** |
| γ5 | -44.4854 | -3.00*** |
| γ6 | 32.5548 | 3.68*** |
| γ7 | -10.8158 | -0.97 |
| γ8 | 6.2520 | 0.63 |
| γ9 | -7.8463 | -0.87 |
| γ10 | -4.5862 | -0.34 |
0.581
Persistence1d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6226 | 3.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2106 | 2.06** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3706 | 1.74* |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -30.7660 | -1.36 |
| γ2 | 42.5192 | 1.10 |
| γ3 | -29.3324 | -1.09 |
| γ4 | 39.7554 | 2.05** |
| γ5 | -44.4854 | -3.00*** |
| γ6 | 32.5548 | 3.68*** |
| γ7 | -10.8158 | -0.97 |
| γ8 | 6.2520 | 0.63 |
| γ9 | -7.8463 | -0.87 |
| γ10 | -4.5862 | -0.34 |
Persistence:
0.581
Half-life:
1 days
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