V-Lab
Hedge Recebiveis FII Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
46,751.64
increased by 12,069.13
1 Week
46,091.68
increased by 11,409.17
1 Month
74,361.81
increased by 39,679.30
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8246 | 3.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3248 | 2.22** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3774 | 2.18** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -23.4974 | -1.38 |
| γ2 | 32.6163 | 1.10 |
| γ3 | -25.4676 | -1.18 |
| γ4 | 38.8949 | 2.28** |
| γ5 | -47.9208 | -2.72*** |
| γ6 | 43.3450 | 2.74*** |
| γ7 | -24.2153 | -2.07** |
| γ8 | 14.7846 | 1.35 |
| γ9 | -19.1642 | -1.47 |
Persistence:
0.702
Half-life:
2 days
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