Hedge Recebiveis FII Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
202,624.70
decreased by 43,195.10
1 Week
238,189.86
decreased by 7,629.94
1 Month
219,969.35
decreased by 25,850.45
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 05:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5081 | 2.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1948 | 1.99** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4699 | 1.92* |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.9071 | 0.13 |
| γ2 | -7.9015 | -0.65 |
| γ3 | 14.7675 | 1.49 |
| γ4 | -17.9783 | -1.83* |
| γ5 | 17.8539 | 2.08** |
| γ6 | -6.8914 | -1.26 |
| γ7 | -0.8715 | -0.13 |
Persistence:
0.665
Half-life:
2 days
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