Genesis Energy L.P. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
6,955.31
increased by 1,001.03
1 Week
5,678.38
decreased by 275.90
1 Month
3,998.01
decreased by 1,956.27
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6471 | 7.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1274 | 14.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8426 | 73.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0573 | -2.53** |
| γ2 | -0.0551 | -1.40 |
| γ3 | 0.1843 | 5.40*** |
| γ4 | -0.0586 | -2.27** |
| γ5 | 0.0245 | 1.22 |
| γ6 | -0.1123 | -3.70*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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