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Morganite Crucible India Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

11,464.59

increased by 3,916.69

1 Week

7,613.16

increased by 65.26

1 Month

5,551.39

decreased by 1,996.51

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Morganite Crucible India Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 19, 2003 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.1308
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1804
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8196
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.8169
γ2-2.2712
γ32.7020
γ4-2.1570
γ51.0893
γ60.0055
γ7-0.2726
γ80.0219
γ90.4256

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

173286 days