Morganite Crucible India Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
15,343.68
1 Week
9,340.52
1 Month
6,358.42
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 19, 2003 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2792 | 0.42 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8317 | 121.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2792 | -0.24 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0005 | 0.49 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0001 | 0.42 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7245 | 9.39*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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