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Euroseas Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

6,308.51

increased by 2,875.99

1 Week

4,678.28

increased by 1,245.76

1 Month

3,564.97

increased by 132.45

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Euroseas Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 5, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 23105 trading days (~91.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2482
2.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1618
7.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8382
39.50***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0588
-8.09***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

23105 days