V-Lab
Euroseas Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
6,308.51
increased by 2,875.99
1 Week
4,678.28
increased by 1,245.76
1 Month
3,564.97
increased by 132.45
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 23105 trading days (~91.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2482 | 2.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1618 | 7.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8382 | 39.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0588 | -8.09*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
23105 days
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