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Bigbloc Constructi Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026

1 Day

4,484.19

increased by 2,055.12

1 Week

2,973.68

increased by 544.61

1 Month

5,438.49

increased by 3,009.42

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 09:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Bigbloc Constructi ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 5, 2016 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 562 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5911
5.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2908
6.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7080
15.78***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-9.5287
-1.00
γ214.8770
0.75
γ320.0071
0.98
γ4-60.4661
-2.47**
γ554.7955
2.73***
γ6-26.2503
-2.41**
γ76.6867
1.78*
γ80.8067
0.42
γ9-0.4995
-0.25
γ10-0.9439
-0.36

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

562 days