Bigbloc Constructi Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
4,484.19
increased by 2,055.12
1 Week
2,973.68
increased by 544.61
1 Month
5,438.49
increased by 3,009.42
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 09:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 5, 2016 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 562 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5911 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2908 | 6.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7080 | 15.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -9.5287 | -1.00 |
| γ2 | 14.8770 | 0.75 |
| γ3 | 20.0071 | 0.98 |
| γ4 | -60.4661 | -2.47** |
| γ5 | 54.7955 | 2.73*** |
| γ6 | -26.2503 | -2.41** |
| γ7 | 6.6867 | 1.78* |
| γ8 | 0.8067 | 0.42 |
| γ9 | -0.4995 | -0.25 |
| γ10 | -0.9439 | -0.36 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
562 days
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