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Takeda Machinery Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

10,025.01

increased by 134.24

1 Week

6,867.44

decreased by 3,023.33

1 Month

2,262.43

decreased by 7,628.34

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Takeda Machinery Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 10830 trading days (~43.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
4.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1560
12.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8439
66.26***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.9158
-5.91***
γ21.2959
6.66***
γ3-0.5887
-7.33***
γ40.3970
4.74***
γ5-0.3525
-4.01***
γ60.2388
2.43**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

10830 days