Takeda Machinery Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
9,917.72
increased by 4,928.50
1 Week
5,198.68
increased by 209.46
1 Month
1,918.93
decreased by 3,070.29
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 10830 trading days (~43.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 4.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1560 | 12.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8439 | 66.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.9158 | -5.91*** |
| γ2 | 1.2959 | 6.66*** |
| γ3 | -0.5887 | -7.33*** |
| γ4 | 0.3970 | 4.74*** |
| γ5 | -0.3525 | -4.01*** |
| γ6 | 0.2388 | 2.43** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
10830 days
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