Powdertech Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
6,384.35
decreased by 197.89
1 Week
4,546.43
decreased by 2,035.81
1 Month
3,266.64
decreased by 3,315.60
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9446 | 5.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1070 | 11.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8861 | 87.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0896 | -4.76*** |
| γ2 | 0.1450 | 4.33*** |
| γ3 | -0.0910 | -2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
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