Mirairo Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
10,329.18
decreased by 3,779.87
1 Week
7,881.95
decreased by 6,227.10
1 Month
4,797.41
decreased by 9,311.64
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4748 | 5.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2424 | 3.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5536 | 4.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1318 | -0.19 |
Persistence:
0.796
Half-life:
3 days
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