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Fujisan Magazine Service Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

7,683.18

increased by 228.23

1 Week

6,079.42

decreased by 1,375.53

1 Month

3,857.00

decreased by 3,597.95

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Fujisan Magazine Service Co ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 7, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8178
0.07
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1436
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8564
0.03
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1437
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231049 days