Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
11,086.04
increased by 188.29
1 Week
11,400.47
increased by 502.72
1 Month
12,944.32
increased by 2,046.57
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 10, 2010 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7048 | 2.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2369 | 9.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7151 | 21.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0368 | -0.06 |
| γ2 | -1.0538 | -0.70 |
| γ3 | 3.1123 | 1.94* |
| γ4 | -4.5838 | -3.95*** |
| γ5 | 4.2786 | 6.46*** |
| γ6 | -2.1707 | -5.45*** |
| γ7 | 0.6162 | 1.74* |
| γ8 | 0.0375 | 0.09 |
| γ9 | -0.5823 | -1.41 |
| γ10 | 1.4627 | 2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
Other Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities