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Chilean Peso APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

9.05%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

9.08%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

9.18%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chilean Peso APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 214 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~214 daysδ = 1.79 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0022
3.06***
αARCH0.0506
6.14***
βGARCH0.9494
134.43***
γleverage-0.0743
-1.14
δpower1.7942
10.67***

0.997

Persistence

214d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0022
3.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0506
6.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9494
134.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0743
-1.14
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7942
10.67***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

214 days