V-Lab
Vietnam Hanoi Stock Exchange Equity Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
16.56%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
17.85%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
21.67%
increased by 4.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2005 to Sep 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.2406 | 5.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.1813 | 10.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7948 | 47.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0099 | 3.96*** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2406 | 5.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1813 | 10.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7948 | 47.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0099 | 3.96*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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