V-Lab
Utl Industries Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
44.74%
increased by 5.93%
1 Week
47.05%
increased by 8.24%
1 Month
50.64%
increased by 11.83%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 13, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3397 | 2.14** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2138 | 8.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6336 | 13.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.9930 | -1.68* |
| γ2 | 1.2668 | 1.61 |
| γ3 | -0.1585 | -0.54 |
| γ4 | -0.2332 | -1.21 |
| γ5 | 0.0206 | 0.11 |
| γ6 | 0.2229 | 1.36 |
| γ7 | -0.1715 | -1.42 |
Persistence:
0.847
Half-life:
4 days
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