US Dollar to Taiwanese Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
4.46%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
4.51%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
4.62%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9877 | 3.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.1414 | 8.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8035 | 37.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0155 | 0.43 |
| γ2 | -0.0140 | -0.23 |
| γ3 | -0.0233 | -0.54 |
| γ4 | 0.0487 | 1.82* |
| γ5 | -0.0603 | -2.52** |
| γ6 | 0.0745 | 3.51*** |
| γ7 | -0.0839 | -4.40*** |
| γ8 | 0.0941 | 3.96*** |
| γ9 | -0.1072 | -3.48*** |
0.945
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9877 | 3.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1414 | 8.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8035 | 37.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0155 | 0.43 |
| γ2 | -0.0140 | -0.23 |
| γ3 | -0.0233 | -0.54 |
| γ4 | 0.0487 | 1.82* |
| γ5 | -0.0603 | -2.52** |
| γ6 | 0.0745 | 3.51*** |
| γ7 | -0.0839 | -4.40*** |
| γ8 | 0.0941 | 3.96*** |
| γ9 | -0.1072 | -3.48*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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