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V-Lab

US Dollar to Singapore Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

3.20%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

3.24%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

3.36%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Singapore Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1026
3.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0356
59.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9930
474.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8249
28.44***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

99 days