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V-Lab

US Dollar to Russian Ruble Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

12.50%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Week

12.79%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

13.77%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Russian Ruble SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1753
1.17
αARCH0.1382
7.73***
βGARCH0.8450
52.09***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0006
0.00
γ2-0.1620
-0.71
γ30.3228
2.93***
γ4-0.2254
-3.53***
γ50.0119
0.30
γ60.1575
4.53***
γ7-0.1998
-5.35***
γ80.1441
2.79***
γ9-0.0437
-0.70
γ10-0.0607
-0.82

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1753
1.17
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1382
7.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8450
52.09***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0006
0.00
γ2-0.1620
-0.71
γ30.3228
2.93***
γ4-0.2254
-3.53***
γ50.0119
0.30
γ60.1575
4.53***
γ7-0.1998
-5.35***
γ80.1441
2.79***
γ9-0.0437
-0.70
γ10-0.0607
-0.82

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days