US Dollar to Russian Ruble Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
12.50%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
12.79%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
13.77%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1753 | 1.17 |
| αARCH | 0.1382 | 7.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8450 | 52.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0006 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.1620 | -0.71 |
| γ3 | 0.3228 | 2.93*** |
| γ4 | -0.2254 | -3.53*** |
| γ5 | 0.0119 | 0.30 |
| γ6 | 0.1575 | 4.53*** |
| γ7 | -0.1998 | -5.35*** |
| γ8 | 0.1441 | 2.79*** |
| γ9 | -0.0437 | -0.70 |
| γ10 | -0.0607 | -0.82 |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1753 | 1.17 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1382 | 7.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8450 | 52.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0006 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.1620 | -0.71 |
| γ3 | 0.3228 | 2.93*** |
| γ4 | -0.2254 | -3.53*** |
| γ5 | 0.0119 | 0.30 |
| γ6 | 0.1575 | 4.53*** |
| γ7 | -0.1998 | -5.35*** |
| γ8 | 0.1441 | 2.79*** |
| γ9 | -0.0437 | -0.70 |
| γ10 | -0.0607 | -0.82 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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