V-Lab
Tron Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
110.82%
decreased by 5.14%
1 Week
127.65%
increased by 11.69%
1 Month
141.20%
increased by 25.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2023 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 3.21 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 84.9780 | 1.45 |
| αARCH | 0.1879 | 1.51 |
| βGARCH | 0.7056 | 3.75*** |
| νDF | 3.2145 | 1.15 |
0.706
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 84.9780 | 1.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1879 | 1.51 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7056 | 3.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2145 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
0.706
Half-life:
2 days
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