Tron Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
145.40%
decreased by 24.04%
1 Week
144.23%
decreased by 25.21%
1 Month
143.14%
decreased by 26.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2023 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 3.36 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 84.1596 | 1.59 |
| αscore | 0.1798 | 1.57 |
| βpersistence | 0.7100 | 4.06*** |
| νDF | 3.3563 | 1.05 |
0.710
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 84.1596 | 1.59 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1798 | 1.57 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.7100 | 4.06*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3563 | 1.05 |
Persistence:
0.710
Half-life:
2 days
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