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V-Lab
V-Lab

Tron Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

110.82%

decreased by 5.14%

1 Week

127.65%

increased by 11.69%

1 Month

141.20%

increased by 25.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Tron Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2023 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 3.21 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst84.9780
1.45
αARCH0.1879
1.51
βGARCH0.7056
3.75***
νDF3.2145
1.15

0.706

Persistence

2d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

84.9780
1.45
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1879
1.51
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7056
3.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2145
1.15

Persistence:

0.706

Half-life:

2 days