V-Lab
Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
34.60%
decreased by 1.92%
1 Week
34.59%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Month
34.63%
decreased by 1.89%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 255% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0425 | 18.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8373 | 98.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1085 | 18.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0313 | 2.51** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0162 | 4.68*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9772 | 219.55*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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