V-Lab
Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
33.31%
decreased by 1.92%
1 Week
33.76%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Month
34.72%
decreased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 26, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4660 | 6.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1137 | 6.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7842 | 25.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0241 | 1.04 |
| γ2 | -0.0004 | -0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.0281 | -1.23 |
| γ4 | -0.0432 | -2.14** |
| γ5 | 0.1114 | 5.72*** |
| γ6 | -0.0923 | -3.64*** |
| γ7 | 0.0303 | 1.25 |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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