V-Lab
Servet Gayrimenkul Yatirim GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
35.85%
decreased by 5.45%
1 Week
38.75%
decreased by 2.55%
1 Month
46.71%
increased by 5.41%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.9761 | 3.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1654 | 26.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9624 | 87.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9772 | 22.13*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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