V-Lab
Servet Gayrimenkul Yatirim GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
31.53%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
33.77%
increased by 1.14%
1 Month
40.26%
increased by 7.63%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4176 | 11.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1358 | 14.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8297 | 127.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0086 | 0.54 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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