V-Lab
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
67.22%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Week
67.50%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Month
68.40%
decreased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2010 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0876 | 7.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1215 | 7.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8438 | 45.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0166 | 2.46** |
| γ2 | -0.0226 | -2.66*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
Other ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs